From 30,000 feet, the COVID lockdown and re-opening played out pretty much like we thought. GDP collapsed in the first half of 2020, then exploded in the third quarter, followed by strong, but erratic, quarterly growth ever since. The fourth quarter data, when it’s released in January, will show 2021 had the fastest GDP growth, and highest inflation, since the 1980s.

As a reminder, this is not a normal business cycle and shouldn’t be treated like one…