Can the US “Fully Recover”?

Can the US “Fully Recover”?

In early 2020, when COVID hit, the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.5%, wages for low-income earners were rising faster than wages for high-income earners, living standards were rising…the economy was on a roll. Then, because scientists said lockdowns...
Stocks Versus the Economy

Stocks Versus the Economy

If you’ve read our two most recent Monday Morning Outlooks, you know we raised our forecast for the S&P 500, but lowered our forecast for real GDP growth. How can that be? The first thing to recognize is that when we say we’re bullish on stocks that doesn’t mean...
The Seeds of Stagflation

The Seeds of Stagflation

Last week, the government reported real GDP in the US grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter and was up 6.4% at an annual rate in the first half of 2021. Real GDP is now 0.8% larger than it was at its peak just prior to COVID.The problem is that getting back...
Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending

Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending

Someone once said, “technology has never moved this fast, and at the same time, will never move this slow again.” So true! A partial list of recent technological advances includes: messenger RNA (mRNA) gene therapies, 5G wireless, blockchain, the cloud, low orbit...
Strong Growth in Q2

Strong Growth in Q2

Another quarter for consumers to rely on massive stimulus payments, extremely loose monetary policy, and the continued re-opening of the US economy combined to push real GDP up at a very rapid pace in the second quarter, with the federal government preparing to...
4,500…Or Higher

4,500…Or Higher

Many are convinced that a US stock market correction, or even a bear market, is inevitable. So, when the S&P 500 was down 1.6% last Thursday, many thought it had arrived. Then, the S&P 500 rebounded and hit a new all-time high on Friday. Being bearish on...