We believe inflation is still, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon. It is defined as “too much money chasing too few goods and services” – but that doesn’t mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same.

Today’s case for higher inflation is easy to understand. The M2 measure of the money supply is up about 25% from a year ago, the fastest year-to-year growth in the post-World War II era. And while measures of overall economic activity such as real GDP and industrial production are still down from a year ago (pre-COVID), Americans’ disposable incomes are substantially higher, boosted by massive payments from the federal government with more “stimulus” on the way…