Market Insights

The Seeds of Stagflation

The Seeds of Stagflation

Last week, the government reported real GDP in the US grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter and was up 6.4% at an annual rate in the first half of 2021. Real GDP is now 0.8% larger than it was at its peak just prior to COVID. The problem is that getting […]

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Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending

Inflation, Shutdowns, Spending

Someone once said, “technology has never moved this fast, and at the same time, will never move this slow again.” So true! A partial list of recent technological advances includes: messenger RNA (mRNA) gene therapies, 5G wireless, blockchain, the cloud, low orbit communication satellites (Starlink), […]

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Strong Growth in Q2

Strong Growth in Q2

Another quarter for consumers to rely on massive stimulus payments, extremely loose monetary policy, and the continued re-opening of the US economy combined to push real GDP up at a very rapid pace in the second quarter, with the federal government preparing to release its initial […]

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4,500…Or Higher

4,500…Or Higher

Many are convinced that a US stock market correction, or even a bear market, is inevitable. So, when the S&P 500 was down 1.6% last Thursday, many thought it had arrived. Then, the S&P 500 rebounded and hit a new all-time high on Friday. Being bearish on equities has not worked for a long time. […]

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“Twin Deficits” Won’t Tank the Dollar

“Twin Deficits” Won’t Tank the Dollar

Many analysts have been thinking and writing about the “twin deficits” and whether the record-breaking size of those two deficits, combined, mean the US dollar is about to plummet versus other currencies. Before we get into the weeds, a little background […]

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The Fake Tight Labor Market

The Fake Tight Labor Market

Is the United States’ job market tight? Well, that totally depends on your perspective. From a national perspective, it certainly isn’t tight. Total nonfarm payrolls were 144.9 million in May 2021, still down 7.6 million from February 2020, right before the COVID shutdowns. In addition, when asked, 9.3 […]

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Taper Tantrum Two

Taper Tantrum Two

To drive home his commitment to easy monetary policy and low interest rates in mid-2020, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell declared the Fed was not even “thinking about thinking about raising rates.” The Fed meets again later this week and, very likely, is still not thinking about thinking […]

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