Some investors think the US is already in a recession. As we wrote two weeks ago and as recent data have confirmed, we don’t think that’s the case. Industrial production is up at a rapid pace so far this year, while payrolls have expanded at a monthly pace of 457,000
and the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.6% from 3.9%. Real gross domestic income (Real GDI), a companion to real GDP that is just as accurate, but which arrives a month later, rose at a 1.8% annualized rate in Q1.